"Structural Change and Assimilation of New Technologies in The Economic and Social Systems"

1983: “Structural Change and Assimilation of New Technologies in The Economic and Social Systems” in Futures, Vol. 15, Nº 4, October, pp. 357-375. ISSN: 0016-3287, 

Download: scass_v04.pdf (76.4kb)

Also appeared as "Structural Change in Industry and Kondratiev Cycles", in C. Freeman, ed. Design, Innovation and Long Cycles in Economic Development, Department of Design Research, Royal College of Art, London, 1984

Reprinted in C. Freeman, ed. The Long Wave in the World Economy, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1996.

In Italian translation in "Cambiamento Strutturale e Assimilazione di Nuove Tecnologie nei Sistemi Economici e Sociali" 
in P. Bisogno ed., Paradigmi Tecnologici: Saggi Sull Economia del Progresso Tecnico, Prometheus No. 2, Milan, pp. 155-186. 


Through generating a set of hypotheses about the inter-relationship between diffusion of new technologies and economic development, the author seeks to identify the causal mechanisms of the depressions of the trough of the Kondratiev long waves. A model of the capitalist economy and an analysis of its structural patterns and processes are proposed, and from an examination of the techno-economic and socio-institutional characteristics of the fourth Kondratiev, some institutional requirements for the next upswing are elaborated.

Table of Contents:  

1. A set of hypotheses
2. Model of the capitalist system
3. Model elements
Technological styles
Investment patterns
a .The carrier branches
b. The motive branches
c. The 'induced branches
4. Upswing characteristics
5. Downswing characteristics
6. Patterns and processes of transformation
7. Taylorism: Seeds of the Fourth Kondratiev
Occupational structure
Income distribution
Product demand
Transformation process
8. Mass production technological style
9. Socio-institutional structures
10. Institutional requirements for the next upswing


Published 2002

'...the book fills an important gap in the literature on business cycles and innovations. I most strongly commend it to all those attempting to understand the past and future evolution of technology and the economy.'

Christopher Freeman, Emeritus Professor, SPRU,
University of Sussex, UK

'...Carlota Perez shows us that historically technological revolutions arrive with remarkable regularity, and that economies react to them in predictable phases. Her argument provides much needed perspective not just on history, but on our own times. And especially on our own information revolution.'

W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico

‘For contents page, selected extracts and further details, click here’.

Technological Revolutions Financial bubbles Installation Period Frenzy Deployment Period Golden Ages Dual strategy Techno‑economic paradigms Neo‑Schumpeterian Respecialization Synergy Turning Point Future markets Knowledge society Green growth Maturity Full global development Globalization Sustainability Socio‑economic development Paradigm shifts Irruption Market hyper‑segmentation